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California projected to run out of ICU beds by Christmas



The United States Latest COVID-19 Trends


Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html


The U.S surpassed 13.5 million cases within one week. 136,313 new cases were reported in the United States on Nov. 29. The 7-day average daily rate is at 162,007 cases/ day, a relatively small decrease from the number of daily cases reported last week. The reduction in the number of daily cases is also reflected in some counties' cooling down on the U.S hot spots map. Also seen on the map, the number of California daily cases has increased since last week, an overall shift to a darker color.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html




California's Latest Trends

Daily Cases in California

Source: https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/. Additional markings were performed.

Note: The above figures show the number of new cases by day in the State of California. The light blue boxes are the actual count, whereas each data point on the lines represents the 7-day average of new cases.


The number of daily cases in California continues to increase and shows no signs of slowing down since the beginning of November. 110,935 new cases were reported since last week's report. 14,034 new cases and 20 death were reported on Nov. 29. 465 more death were reported since last week. The seven-day average daily death continues to show an upward trend.


County Tier Assignment

Source: https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/

Note: Shown above is the tier assignment updated on Nov. 28. The stars indicate counties that have moved to a more restricted tier since last week's report.


As of Nov. 28, eleven counties have moved into a more restricted tier. The statewide case rate is 30.5 (new positive cases per day per 100K), an 84% increase since our last update. Orange County's case rate is at 25.6, with a positivity rate of 7.6%.



Orange County Lastest Trends

Daily Cases, Deaths, and Hospitalization Rate

Source: https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/. Additional markings were performed.

Note: The above figures show the number of new cases by day in the State of California. The light blue boxes are the actual count, whereas each data point on the lines represents the 7-day average of new cases.


Orange County's daily rate continues to climb at an alarming rate. With a higher daily case rate, the number of cumulative cases is increasing even faster than before. A total of 9,532 new cases were reported since last week, with 734 new cases reported today. 26 more death was reported since last week, and the seven-day average daily death shows a slightly upward trend. This trend is expected to change soon, given the recent sharp jump in hospitalization. The county currently has 25% of its intensive care unit beds and 63% of its ventilators available. Just this Monday, Governor Newsom warned of stricter stay-at-home orders as the state is projected to run out of ICU beds before Christmas Eve.

Source: https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/. Additional markings were performed.



The number of OC residents hospitalized with the virus jumped from 534 to 597 on Sunday, with the number of patients in the ICU rising from 138 to 148. The total number of hospitalized patients are slowly reaching hospitalization metrics observed in the last wave. With the cold weather pushing more activities indoor and continuously increasing daily cases, the second wave might be even more devastating than the first.





Increasing Testing Capacity


In response to the overwhelming number of daily cases, Orange County has started an initiative to hand out at-home saliva PCR COVID test kits in addition to countywide free testing sites. The do-it-yourself saliva test is just as accurate as the nasal swab tests. Due to limited supply, the test kits are currently made available to Anaheim and Santa residents as they are the two largest evolving hot spots in Orange County. Below are the community clinics where the kits are available for pickup:

  1. Family Health Matters, Fullerton 901 W Orangethorpe Ave, Fullerton, CA 92832

  2. Families Together of Orange County, Tustin 661 W First St #G, Tustin, CA 92780

  3. Korean Community Services, Anaheim 451 West Lincoln Ave., Suite 100, Anaheim 92805

  4. Serve the People Health Center, Santa Ana 1206 17th St #101, Santa Ana, CA 92701

  5. Southland Integrated Health Services, Garden Grove 862 Chapman Ave, Suite B, Garden Grove, CA 92841

Dr. Clayton Chau projected that the test kits are very likely to be available countywide in early 2021. The test is easy to do and takes 24 hours to get the result. Self-testing kits will make testing more convenient and accessible to the public. They will further expand the county's testing capacity, which plays a vital role in containing the virus's spread.


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