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The Second Wave is Here

Updated: Nov 23, 2020


Hot Spots Across the Country

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Note: As explained in last week's COVIDVIEW report, the case rate is the total number of positive cases per 100,000 residents. Unlike the total-case number, case rates take into account different county populations, allowing for a more useful comparison of COVID-19 spread across the country.



Compared to last week's map, the hot spot map is getting hotter, indicating an overall increase in all counties' case rates across the U.S, especially in midwest and mid-southern counties. The Coronavirus outbreak continues to worsen.



California Trends Indicate a Second Wave

Note: [Figures were updated at 2 PM on 11/15/2020] Numbers do not represent true day-over-day change as these results include cases from before yesterday.

Source: https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/


As of November 15th, California has 1,019,345 confirmed cases of COVID-19, an increase of 79,335 cases since November 4th. A steep upward trend mimics the first wave's initial direction and suggests that the second wave's peak could be higher than the first.


Source: https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/

Note: Shown above is the tier assignment updated on November 10th. The Tier assignments are updated weekly every Tuesday. The stars indicate counties that have moved to a higher tier since November 3rd.


As of November 10th, eight counties have moved into a more restrictive coronavirus tier. San Diego county moved back to the purple level as of last Tuesday. Orange County remained in the Orange tier. If the current trends continue, Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state's Secretary of Health and Human Services, warns that more than half of California's counties would move into a more restrictive tier in the next weeks.



Evolving Hot Spots in Orange County


General Trends

Notes: The numbers were updated on Sunday, November 15th. This graphic is taken from The LA Times Coronavirus Tracking report. Additional marking was performed to illustrate the similarity between the current trend and the first wave in July.



Source: https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/

Numbers do not represent true day-over-day change as these results include cases before yesterday. All-time series data is by reported date (the date information was reported to the California Department of Public Health).

Note: The above figures show the number of new cases by day in Orange County (Blue line) in comparison with the State of California (Grey line). The light blue boxes are the actual count, whereas each data point on the lines represents the 7-day average of new cases. The figures captured ten days apart show how the number of daily cases changed over that period. The markings on the right graph emphasize the similarity between the current trend and the first spike in July.


As of November 15th, the total cases in Orange County reached 65225, an addition of 4942 cases since our last report (11/05). What even more alarming is the rate at which the total-case number is climbing. Our current daily case (639 new cases) is twice the daily case on November 1st (245 new cases). The rate suggests that Orange County might be at the start of the second spike/ wave.


Evolving Hot Spots

Note: A heat map showing current hot spots in Orange County.


The table above shows the top ten cities with the highest case rates in Orange County. Anaheim and Santa Ana remain the largest hot spots of Orange County. Although they have significantly lower cumulative cases, other cities on the list have a relatively high case rate. Our OC API taskforce concentrates our testing effort in many of the cities on this list.


Source: https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/orange-county/


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